This and That: Why Complex Problems Don’t Have a Single Cause
Most people try to solve complex problems by asking the wrong question.
They ask:
“What is the problem?”
That question assumes there is one problem—one faulty component, one bad decision, one person, one variable—that can be isolated, removed, or replaced so everything else snaps back into order.
In complex systems, that assumption is almost always false.
Why Disorder Is the Default State
Left alone, systems deteriorate.
Homes get messy. Businesses decay. Processes drift. Relationships require maintenance. Organizations fragment unless energy is constantly applied to keep them aligned.
This isn’t pessimism—it’s physics.
The Second Law of Thermodynamics tells us that entropy increases unless energy is injected into a system. Order is not the natural state. Maintenance is.
So the real mystery isn’t why things break.
It’s why anything ever works at all.
The Hidden Trap in “The Problem”
When we say “the problem”, we smuggle in a dangerous assumption:
that the issue is isolated, independent, and separable from everything around it.
That framing works for machines.
It fails for human systems.
Businesses, teams, partnerships, markets, and relationships are not collections of independent variables. They are interdependent systems, where changes in one area ripple unpredictably through others.
Linear Thinking vs. Non-Linear Reality
Most people think in linear terms.
If:
- B is better than A
- C is better than B
Then C must be better than A.
That logic works for height, weight, money, and quantities.
But many real-world systems are non-transitive.
A classic example is rock-paper-scissors:
- Rock beats scissors
- Scissors beats paper
- Paper beats rock
There is no permanent hierarchy—only relationships.
Many business, organizational, and social problems behave this way, even when we pretend they don’t.
Why “Best Practices” So Often Fail
This is where superficial consulting advice collapses.
Someone says:
“This campaign worked for us. Plug it into your business and you’ll get the same results.”
But a campaign is not a single variable.
It contains:
- Timing
- Audience psychology
- Distribution mechanics
- Organizational readiness
- Incentives
- Culture
Treating it as one variable ignores both its internal complexity and the complexity of the system it’s entering.
That’s why identical tactics produce wildly different outcomes in different organizations.
Catalysts Are Not Causes
Another common mistake is confusing catalysts with causes.
A catalyst triggers an event.
A cause is the set of conditions that made the event possible.
If a bridge collapses when a truck crosses it, the truck didn’t cause the collapse. It merely revealed the weakness.
The real causes include:
- Design decisions
- Material quality
- Budget constraints
- Oversight failures
- Incentive structures
Blaming the final trigger feels satisfying—but it explains nothing.
There Is No Privileged Point of Causation
In interdependent systems:
- There is no single root cause
- There is no magic domino
- There is no isolated fix
The system itself is the problem.
That’s uncomfortable, because it removes the fantasy of a clean solution. But it’s also honest.
This is why reducing a failing organization to “a bad hire” or “a bad strategy” often makes things worse. The explanation provides emotional relief without producing insight.
Why MECE Thinking Breaks Down in Human Systems
Large consulting firms like McKinsey & Company, Boston Consulting Group, and Deloitte often rely on MECE frameworks—Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive.
At a high level, these can be useful for structuring thought.
But in real organizations, variables are rarely truly independent. Politics, incentives, communication, identity, and power leak into everything.
Just like in relationships, nothing is fully isolated.
Why Prediction Fails in Complex Systems
You cannot meaningfully isolate interdependent variables and expect predictive certainty.
Trying to do so is like attempting to understand a liver by conceptually removing it from the body. The liver only exists as part of a system, across multiple levels of interaction.
This is why:
- Viral content cannot be reliably engineered
- Culture cannot be copied
- Strategy does not scale mechanically
Human systems are contextual, not repeatable.
The Practical Shift: From Certainty to Humility
If you feel tempted to say:
“Obviously this is the problem.”
Pause.
That feeling is usually emotional closure masquerading as insight.
Better questions:
- What are the problems?
- How do they interact?
- Which changes can we test cautiously?
- What happens when we adjust one variable and observe?
This is not indecision.
It’s disciplined experimentation.
Failure Is the Baseline, Not the Exception
Most things fail.
Not 90%.
Not 95%.
Closer to 99%.
In entrepreneurship, consulting, careers, and creative work, success is rare by definition.
Understanding that isn’t pessimism—it’s operational realism.
It allows you to persist without delusion and iterate without panic.
The Real Answer: This and That
Complex problems don’t resolve through singular fixes.
They resolve through:
- Understanding interdependence
- Abandoning privileged causes
- Applying small, reversible interventions
- Observing feedback
- Adjusting continuously
It’s never this or that.
It’s this and that—and the relationships between them.
FAQs
Why is it dangerous to search for a single root cause?
Because it oversimplifies interdependent systems and creates false confidence while masking deeper dynamics.
What does non-transitive mean in practical terms?
It means outcomes depend on context and relationships, not linear ranking or hierarchy.
Why do proven strategies fail when copied?
Because they ignore internal variables and assume systems behave identically across environments.
How should complex problems be approached instead?
With humility, experimentation, and awareness that causation is distributed, not singular.
If you’re dealing with complex, human-driven systems where simple answers keep failing, I work with leaders and organizations navigating exactly these conditions.
You can reach me directly at [email protected].
I work both done-for-you and done-with-you, depending on what the situation requires.
This essay connects to my broader work on systems thinking and execution.
https://gabebautista.com/essays/systems/
