EDIT (the above video recorded before 2020! ) – Still, Here is What works for me instead of New Year’s Resolutions.
Every year, people ask the same question:
What are your goals for next year?
I don’t answer it that way anymore.
Not because goals are bad—but because most people ask the question too late in the thinking process. By the time you’re setting goals, you’ve already accepted assumptions you haven’t examined.
Strategy starts before objectives.
It starts with judgment.
The Problem With New Year’s Resolutions
New Year’s resolutions feel productive because they sound decisive.
But decisiveness without clarity is just activity.
Most resolutions fail for a simple reason:
They are answers to poorly framed questions.
(Most resolutions fail in the first 5 minutes?)
People decide what they want to do before asking:
- What actually happened last year?
- What patterns keep repeating?
- Where am I consistently wrong about myself?
Without that reflection, goals are just wishes with deadlines.
The First Strategic Error: Treating Time as Abstract
Ask someone how many days are in a year and most people will say 365—without thinking.
That answer is sometimes wrong. (2028 will have 366 for example)
The point isn’t the calendar trivia.
The point is that strategy begins with respecting reality, not assumptions.
If you don’t accurately perceive the environment you’re operating in—time included—you can’t make good decisions inside it.
Looking Back Is a Strategic Act
Before planning forward, I always look backward.
Not nostalgically.
Not emotionally.
Strategically.
I review:
- What worked
- What didn’t
- What should have worked, but didn’t
When I did this across multiple years, something uncomfortable became obvious:
I had repeated the same mistake more than once.
That’s not coincidence.
That’s a signal.
Repeated Mistakes Aren’t Moral Failures
When people repeat mistakes, they tend to blame character:
- “I need more discipline”
- “I should try harder”
- “Next year will be different”
That’s rarely true.
Repeated mistakes usually point to:
- Misjudged tradeoffs
- Unacknowledged constraints
- Blind spots in self-perception
Strategy isn’t about being harsher with yourself.
It’s about being more honest. UNDERSTAND yourself and your surroundings better.
Why Writing Things Down Changes the Outcome
Memory edits reality.
Writing doesn’t.
When you document what you believed, expected, or assumed—and revisit it later—you remove the ability to rewrite history in your favor.
That’s why reflection has to be externalized.
As Peter Drucker once observed, experience alone doesn’t teach.
Only examined experience does.
Many people live through the same year over and over, calling it “experience.”
Prediction Is Better Than Resolution
Instead of resolutions, I make predictions.
I write down:
- What I think will be difficult
- Where I expect friction
- What I’m likely underestimating
Why?
Because prediction exposes judgment.
Later, when I look back, the question isn’t did I succeed?
It’s was I accurate?
Accuracy is the foundation of strategy.
Strategy Is Deciding What Not to Pretend Anymore
Before you decide what you’ll do next year, decide this first:
- What am I no longer going to lie to myself about?
- What patterns am I done ignoring?
- What tradeoffs am I finally willing to accept?
Until those questions are answered, planning is premature.
Strategy doesn’t start with ambition.
It starts with clarity.
The Year Is Just a Marker — The Real Unit Is You
Whether it’s a new year, a new decade, or just another cycle doesn’t matter.
What matters is whether your thinking improves.
If your judgment sharpens, better outcomes follow naturally.
If it doesn’t, time will pass anyway—and nothing will change.
That’s the real preparation.
FAQs
Why are goals not enough for planning?
Because goals don’t examine assumptions. Strategy requires clarity before commitment.
What’s the difference between strategy and execution here?
Strategy is about judgment and direction. Execution comes later, once decisions are sound.
Why focus on repeated mistakes?
Because patterns reveal blind spots. One-off failures are noise; repetition is signal.
How does prediction help strategic thinking?
It forces you to confront how well you understand reality—before outcomes distort memory.
Is this approach only for business?
No. It applies to career decisions, health, relationships, and creative work.
I help founders and operators clarify strategy before execution. Reach me at [email protected] or book a call:
This article connects to broader strategic thinking and branch:
https://gabebautista.com/essays/strategy/
