Technology: Exponential vs. Linear — Don’t Be Left Behind
Most people think linearly.
Technology evolves exponentially.
That mismatch explains why dominant companies collapse, why careers become obsolete faster than expected, and why change always feels sudden—when it wasn’t.
The danger isn’t technology itself.
The danger is applying linear thinking to exponential systems.
Linear Thinking Is Intuitive — and Misleading
Linear thinking is predictable:
- Today is the 21st, tomorrow is the 22nd
- If something grows by 10 units per year, next year it grows by 10 more
Our brains evolved to understand this world.
Exponential systems behave differently. Growth looks slow, almost irrelevant—until it accelerates past intuition. The critical moment is the knee of the curve, where change suddenly feels overwhelming.
By the time most people notice it, the gap is already too wide.
Why Exponential Growth Feels Impossible
Take a single sheet of paper.
Fold it once → thickness doubles
Fold it again → doubles again
Nothing about the paper changes. Only the growth rule does.
- ~11 folds → about 1 inch
- ~20 folds → roughly a football field
- ~50 folds → Earth to the Sun
This is why exponential change always feels exaggerated—until it isn’t.
Human Bias Is the Real Bottleneck
One reason people resist exponential change is loss aversion.
We instinctively prefer:
- Keeping what we have
- Over gaining something potentially better
Letting go of a familiar system feels like loss—even when holding on is more dangerous.
This is why people delay adopting new tools, new models, or new skills until change is unavoidable.
At that point, it’s often too late.
Opportunity or Stress Depends on Timing
Peter Diamandis describes the exponential gap in two ways:
- Disruptive opportunity if you move early
- Disruptive stress if you wait
Same curve.
Different outcomes.
Kodak Didn’t Lose to Technology — It Lost to Framing
Kodak invented the digital camera internally.
Yet Kodak defined its business as:
- Film
- Chemicals
- Paper
Not what it actually was: preserving memories.
When digital photography crossed the exponential curve, Kodak stayed linear.
They filed for bankruptcy in 2012.
Meanwhile, Instagram sold for $1B with roughly 13 employees.
The difference wasn’t resources.
It was systems thinking.
Blockbuster Had Everything — Except Exponential Timing
Blockbuster had:
- Content
- Distribution
- Brand
- Customers
What they lacked was willingness to abandon a linear model early enough.
By the time they reacted, Netflix had already crossed the curve.
Moore’s Law Explains Why This Keeps Happening
Gordon Moore observed that computing power roughly doubles while cost stays the same.
That insight—Moore’s Law—held for decades.
Ray Kurzweil expanded this idea into the Law of Accelerating Returns:
each generation of technology helps create the next, faster one.
This is not speculation.
It’s compounding infrastructure.
From the Information Age to the Question Age
Information is no longer scarce.
A Maasai warrior with a smartphone has access to more information than a U.S. president did a generation ago.
When information is abundant:
- Knowledge stops being the advantage
- Questions become the constraint
What matters is:
- How problems are framed
- Which questions are asked
- How systems filter and act on information
As the hologram says in I, Robot:
“My responses are limited. You must ask the right questions.”
Practical Exponential Reality Checks
- 10 doublings ≈ 1,000×
- 20 doublings ≈ 1,000,000×
- 30 doublings ≈ 1,000,000,000×
Planning linearly inside exponential systems isn’t conservative—it’s reckless.
Final Thought
Exponential change never feels urgent—until it’s irreversible.
The winners aren’t the most informed.
They’re the ones who adapt early, reframe their systems, and move before certainty arrives.
The question isn’t whether change is coming.
It’s whether you’ll cross the curve—or be crushed by the gap.
FAQs
What’s the difference between linear and exponential growth?
Linear growth adds; exponential growth multiplies, creating sudden acceleration.
Why do people resist exponential change?
Loss aversion and linear intuition make early change feel unnecessary and risky.
Why did Kodak fail despite inventing digital photography?
They framed their business around products instead of the underlying system.
Is this only about technology?
No. Exponential dynamics apply to biology, networks, economics, and organizations.
What matters most in a world of abundant information?
The quality of questions and system design.
If you’re thinking about how exponential technologies affect your business, career, or systems email me [email protected]
This essay connects to the Systems hub:
https://gabebautista.com/essays/systems/
